The Israeli air assault on Iran the day before scheduled nuclear talks was not spontaneous. The strike was premeditated and timed to undermine a diplomatic solution. Iran had entered negotiations prepared to accept strict constraints, including capping uranium enrichment at civilian levels and giving access to international inspectors. Tehran was ready to make binding legal commitments against developing nuclear weapons. Israel acted to preempt a political resolution that would have made military action diplomatically and legally impossible.
Iran’s enrichment of uranium to 60%, while not illegal under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, created the image of a nuclear threshold state. This gave Israel and its U.S. allies rhetorical cover for intervention. But the facts matter. Iran never crossed the line into producing weapons-grade material. Its leadership signaled repeatedly that it was open to reversing course under the right terms. This is not the behavior of a state seeking the bomb at all costs.
The timing of the strike makes clear that Israel’s goal was to block any diplomatic off-ramp. Had Iran and U.S. negotiators reached agreement, Israel would have lost its justification for force. This is why they struck when they did. The operation decapitated Iran’s diplomatic channel, killing negotiator Ali Shamkhani along with senior military officials. The goal was to provoke Iran and force a war.
Donald Trump was not an outside observer. By several accounts, he coordinated with Israel in advance and misled the Iranians about the sincerity of the upcoming talks. The U.S. military had fully deconflicted its operational plans with Israel’s, meaning the administration was aware of and complicit in the attack. Israeli was not acting alone and it was a coordinated offensive.
International law provides for preemptive self-defense only in the face of imminent threat. Israel cannot claim that when Iran was actively negotiating away its enrichment stockpile and allowing intrusive inspections. The legal basis for the strike is nonexistent. It meets the definition of a war of aggression. And under international law, launching an unprovoked war is the supreme crime.
The military operation was highly effective in the short term. Israeli drones penetrated deep into Iranian territory, striking leadership targets and nuclear infrastructure. But the campaign failed strategically. Iran was not knocked out. Instead, it has launched a measured and precise counterattack focused on military and infrastructure targets in Israel. Its restraint, particularly in avoiding civilian casualties, is notable compared to Israel’s past campaigns in Gaza and Lebanon.
The drone networks Israel used to carry out the attack had been built over a decade. Iranian intelligence is now rolling them up. That loss of access cannot be quickly or easily replaced. In a war of attrition, Israel is not in a strong position. It lacks the capacity to sustain long-term bombing without U.S. intervention. The infrastructure and military assets it depends on are compact and exposed. The longer the war continues, the more vulnerable Israel becomes.
There is also a deeper strategic miscalculation. Israel hoped to eliminate Iran’s nuclear capacity by bombing. This belief is not supported by history or facts. Much of the sensitive equipment was likely removed before the attack. Iran has a network of hardened underground facilities. Even U.S. bunker buster bombs cannot reliably penetrate them. Worse, by launching this war, Israel has all but ensured that Iran will now complete the dispersal and hardening of its nuclear program, rendering future strikes even less effective.
The Israeli military had initial tactical success, which has since evaporated, and it cannot sustain a strategic campaign. There are only limited targets. Israel has capable pilots, but the Air Force alone cannot eliminate a deeply entrenched nuclear infrastructure. And as Iranian retaliation escalates, Israel’s civilian and economic vulnerabilities are exposed. Already, strategic targets like Haifa’s gas infrastructure and Ben-Gurion Airport have been struck. These are blows Israel cannot absorb indefinitely.
This is not a war Israel can win alone. But U.S. entry into the conflict carries the risk of regional escalation, including nuclear exchange. There are credible reports that Pakistan has warned against the use of nuclear weapons. Israel’s own nuclear arsenal is unacknowledged and unmonitored, unlike Iran’s, which has been under the IAEA’s scrutiny. Yet it is Iran that is vilified as the threat.
The U.S. public has not been informed, let alone consulted. Intelligence has been politicised. The president is acting on alternative channels of information, dismissing briefings from his own Director of National Intelligence. Key voices, such as Tulsi Gabbard, have been sidelined. The decision-making resembles the manipulation seen ahead of the 2003 Iraq invasion.
The public rationale for war is full of holes. The military plan is unrealistic. The diplomatic alternative was within reach. And the consequences of escalation are barely being discussed. If this war continues, Israel’s strategic position will degrade. If the U.S. deepens its involvement, the risk of wider conflict grows. Iran is not collapsing. It is fighting back.
This war was launched on false premises. The architects of it, Israel’s leadership and elements of the U.S. government, have no clear exit strategy. Their gamble has failed to produce quick victory. Instead, they are faced with a resilient adversary and mounting global scrutiny.
There is no military solution to this crisis. Continuing down this path only leads to further destabilization and potential catastrophe. The window for a negotiated outcome is closing fast, and it was open until the moment Israel chose to close it with missiles.
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