Israel’s military campaign inside Iran has reached a fourth day, with the Israeli government claiming air superiority and asserting the destruction of over 100 missile launchers in central Iran. These claims have been paired with a media campaign suggesting Israeli control of the conflict. But the evidence on the ground shows a more complicated picture. Iran has responded with sustained strikes on Israeli territory and key infrastructure, and damage has been confirmed inside Israel, including civilian and military casualties.
Iranian officials have identified that most attacks on Iranian targets were carried out not by airstrikes but through infiltration operations. According to Iranian state media, multiple drone factories and weapons depots inside Iran were hit using short-range anti-tank weapons by agents operating on the ground. Assassinations of Iranian military figures, previously thought to be the result of air raids, are now believed to have been carried out by shoulder-mounted weapons fired within residential neighborhoods.
Iran has since captured several of these infiltrator squads and seized their equipment. Iranian sources say this has reduced the effectiveness of further Israeli attacks inside Iranian territory. Israeli strikes are reportedly being launched from Iraqi airspace using ballistic missiles dropped from jets, with limited range to hit deeper Iranian targets. That constraint is likely one of the factors prompting the U.S. to prepare for direct involvement. Over two dozen American aerial refueling tankers have arrived in the region, and there are reports of coordinated NATO air deployments.
Iran’s military response has been methodical. It began with waves of older ballistic missiles and drones that forced the activation of Israeli and Western air defense systems. Once these systems revealed their positions, Iran launched hypersonic missiles to destroy them. Iranian strikes have now dismantled major segments of Israel’s air defense grid, particularly between the Golan Heights and Tel Aviv.
Critical infrastructure in Israel has also been hit. The port of Haifa and a nearby power plant were struck. Half of Israel’s electricity generation capacity was taken offline. Jordan and Egypt have rerouted electricity into Israel to stabilize its grid, causing blackouts in their own countries. Iranian attacks have also targeted Israeli military bases near Lebanon and the Golan Heights, raising concerns about infiltration from neighboring territory.
Iran appears to be holding its most advanced missile systems in reserve. Iranian commanders say they anticipated a U.S. attack and prepared for a long-term war. Their strategy involves escalating gradually, preserving stockpiles, and targeting key assets selectively to avoid early exposure to American surveillance and strike capabilities.
If the U.S. becomes openly involved, Iran is expected to retaliate by targeting military airfields and jet fuel storage in U.S.-aligned Gulf states and British airbases in Cyprus. Iranian strikes on Israeli jet fuel facilities earlier this week may preview these moves. This would likely trigger an oil supply shock even without direct hits on Gulf oil fields.
Israel has begun restricting civilian departures. Reports suggest that millions of Israeli residents attempted to flee after the initial attacks, prompting government restrictions. Many are now trying to leave through land and sea routes, particularly via Egypt, Jordan, and Cyprus. Analysts view this as a sign of internal collapse within Israel. Recent attacks have eroded civilian confidence and raised questions about Israel’s ability to continue the war without U.S. military support.
Netanyahu’s political troubles have been deepening for months, with the Israeli government facing instability. Observers argue the war was used to divert attention from domestic collapse. But the destruction of infrastructure and mass civilian flight suggest this effort has backfired.
Iran has not yet targeted Israel’s desalination plants, which provide water to nearly all major Israeli population centers. But Iranian officials have indicated that if war expands, water infrastructure will be targeted. Israeli water supply depends almost entirely on eight plants on the Mediterranean coast. If even half are taken offline, major urban centers would face immediate shortages.
The U.S. continues to deny direct involvement while supporting Israel through weapons and logistics. Washington think tanks have long pushed for a full war with Iran. They appear to have underestimated Iran’s capacity to absorb strikes, retaliate, and threaten the broader regional infrastructure that the West depends on.
The possibility of nuclear escalation has also been raised. Iranian officials and regional analysts warn that if nuclear fallout reaches neighboring countries like Pakistan or China from strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, both nations may retaliate. Pakistan, as a nuclear state, has indicated that fallout impacting its population would not be tolerated. Iran’s restraint since October 2023 has been framed by its supporters as a deliberate strategy to avoid this scenario and to expose Western intentions gradually.
Internal opposition to the war in Western countries is also growing. The slow progression of Iranian counterattacks and the exposure of Western complicity have triggered public backlash. Protests and political pressure in Europe and North America may shape the outcome of this conflict as much as battlefield developments.
The war between Israel and Iran is no longer a local or regional conflict. U.S. preparations and Iranian responses point toward broader confrontation. With critical infrastructure already destroyed and the threat of wider war looming, the choices made by Washington in the coming days will determine whether the Middle East war becomes a global one.
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