This war is about regime change, nothing to do with nuclear weapons.
Israel’s strike on Iran marked a turning point in the region. The operation, conducted with Western intelligence support, hit Iranian targets days before Iran was scheduled to resume nuclear negotiations with the U.S. So most people are not aware that Benjamin Netanyahu survived a vote of no confidence by only 2 votes, day prior to the attack, otherwise, Israeli's would have been heading to the polls. The element of surprise via infiltration, planned for many months, was deliberate. Some Iranian leadership was caught off guard, but the Israeli attempt at a decapitation strike failed to achieve its full aim.
Israel’s broader strategy seems reckless. Already facing sustained engagement in Gaza, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, Tel Aviv now risks opening another front. The assumption appears to be that if the situation escalates, the U.S. and others will step in to finish the job. This is a gamble with diminishing odds. American power projection has shown serious limitations in recent years, from the failed withdrawal in Afghanistan to unsuccessful naval campaigns in the Red Sea and the inconclusive Operation Rough Rider against Yemen’s Ansarallah.
Iran is not Yemen or the Taliban. It’s a regional power with deep strategic depth, a well-armed military, and strong backing from China, Russia, and Pakistan. The U.S. Navy’s assets in the region carry limited payloads. Once their missiles are expended, they need to withdraw to rearm, leaving them vulnerable. If they stay, they risk being sunk. Within the Pentagon, this is understood, even if it’s not publicly acknowledged.
The question is why Trump, despite past positions against foreign entanglements, has greenlit this action. One possibility is domestic politics. He needs Congressional support for his economic agenda, including a major bill expected to hit the Senate around July 4. Appeasing pro-Israel factions could improve his odds. But the cost is alienating core supporters. Former allies like Matt Gaetz and Tulsi Gabbard have openly broken ranks, and dissent is spreading inside the military. If the U.S. enters the war, resignations and insubordination are not unlikely.
The consequences of escalation would be enormous. Iran has shown it can strike back effectively. Their newer missile systems have proven accurate and fast, hitting Israeli territory in under five minutes. Damage to Israeli infrastructure, including Ben Gurion airport, ports, refineries, and Mossad headquarters, has been significant. Israeli forces admit they're running low on air defense munitions. Their capacity to withstand a prolonged conflict is in serious doubt.
Even within the Israeli government and military, panic is visible. Reports indicate arguments between high-level officials over provoking Iran. Admissions have surfaced that Iranian capabilities were underestimated. Claims that Iran hacked into Israel’s missile defense systems, causing them to malfunction or misfire, add another layer of risk.
Should Israel resort to nuclear weapons, the fallout could spiral out of control. Pakistan has reportedly warned it would arm Iran in such a scenario. Trump recently met a Pakistani General in secrecy, outside of diplomatic channels. Memories of how the then pro Russian President, Imran Khan was deposed from power are still fresh. Whether they would follow through is uncertain, but Iran's message has been very clear, a nuclear escalation will not go unanswered. The idea that a small country with nuclear arms can strike without consequences is unrealistic. It would not just be a regional crisis; it could unravel the global balance.
Beyond the military risks, the regional political order is also fragile. Leaders in Egypt and Jordan face intense pressure. In Turkey, public anger is growing over Erdogan’s dual posture, publicly criticising Israel while quietly enabling their operations. A wider war could spark regime change in several countries. U.S. allies in the Gulf, Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE, would be unlikely to escape the fallout.
Blocking shipping lanes like the Strait of Hormuz or Bab al-Mandab would devastate the global economy. Oil prices would spike, possibly over $200 per barrel. Inflation would rise. Central banks would hike rates. Bond markets could collapse. Western economies would face a full-blown crisis, including civil unrest and political upheaval.
The logic of the war falls apart at every level. Iran hasn’t attacked a neighbor in centuries, since 1774. Israel has been in continuous conflict since its creation. The international narrative about Iranian nuclear ambitions lacks credibility. Iran has offered to limit enrichment and called for a nuclear-free Middle East. Only the U.S., U.K., and Israel oppose this.
The real issue is hegemony. Iran blocks Western control over the region. That’s why regime change is the true goal. The rest is pretext. If Iran falls, the West regains its grip on energy flows and can resume economic domination. That’s the plan. And that’s why the war is being pushed forward.
But the empire no longer has the tools it used to. The U.S. can’t sustain long wars. Public opinion is fractured, western economies are brittle and the military edge is fading. The rest of the world is no longer compliant. Then you have the BRICS nations and the wider Global South are forging new ties. Old alliances are losing grip, even Saudi Arabia is no longer a reliable U.S. partner.
The end of this war, if it does come, will not be a reset to old norms. What will ensure will be an acceleration of Western decline in the Middle East. If the U.S. joins, it will hasten the collapse of its regional influence. What replaces it remains to be seen. But the old order is definitively breaking. I stand corrected.
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