The strategist Andrey Bezrukov spoke at the St Petersburg International Legal Forum on May 20, warning that the world is moving into an age of survival. He identified only three nations with the capacity for true self‑sufficiency. Those are Russia, Brazil, and the United States. His argument rests on resource abundance and geopolitical resilience in conditions of extreme crisis.
He described Russia as uniquely adapted for survival. It can be effectively fenced off, yet sustain its population with domestic food, energy, and logistical systems. He pointed to Russia’s ability to feed and warm half the world and to serve as the logistics link between East and West. Egypt, he said, provides a striking contrast. Egypt depends daily on grain imports. A disruption in supply triggers immediate hunger and breakdown. That level of dependency lies at the core of vulnerability in many countries.
So let us look at the three countries in tandem. Russia, Brazil and the United States qualify as the only nations that can maintain true self‑sufficiency because each possesses a combination of vast land, abundant natural resources, agricultural depth and energy infrastructure. Russia holds the world’s largest proven natural gas reserves, nearly forty per cent of global total, along with the second largest coal reserves, sixth largest oil reserves and significant uranium, gold and rare earth minerals. The country cultivates 123 million hectares of arable land and produces more than enough grain to surpass domestic needs by twenty‑five per cent, exporting over forty‑eight million tonnes of wheat in 2024 according to Climate Cosmos. Fully self‑sufficient in poultry and pork and close to self‑sufficiency in other staples, Russia maintains strategic food reserves sufficient to feed its population for more than two years during emergencies quoted in GIS Reports and Climate Cosmos. The nation targets ninety per cent domestic production in aquafeed by 2030 to secure further resilience, this is reported in Investopedia and Feed Business Middle East & Africa.
Brazil achieved energy self‑sufficiency in oil by 2006 and continues to produce more than required to meet domestic demand, generating over three million barrels of oil equivalent per day according information found on Wikipedia. Renewable energy covers more than seventy‑five per cent of electricity production, thanks to large hydropower capacity and increasing wind and solar installations that reached over 21 GW by late 2024. Brazil produces ethanol from sugarcane and corn at scale and biodiesel mainly from soybeans; recent policy mandates will raise blends to thirty per cent ethanol and fifteen per cent biodiesel, eliminating gasoline import dependence for the first time in fifteen years, from a Reuters report. The country leads global exports in soybeans, sugar, poultry and meat, and its agricultural output ranked fourth globally in value in 2021, noted in Investopedia.
The United States holds broad agricultural capacity, commanding large surpluses in wheat, corn and soybeans. Wheat self‑sufficiency exceeded 125 per cent in 2021 and the country produces more food than it consumes according to Savills and Investopedia. The US also retains some of the largest proven coal reserves in the world and possesses extensive mineral deposits including copper, rare earths, uranium and timber, valued at tens of trillions of dollars. Energy infrastructure spans oil, natural gas, nuclear and renewables, supporting internal demand and export markets with resilience to global disruption.
Together these three nations secure self‑sufficiency through sheer scale and diversity of their natural and technical endowment. Russia’s geographic vastness, resource depth and state support for agriculture confer insulation from sanction or supply shocks. Brazil’s climate, land mass and renewable strategy underpin internal fuel and food systems. The United States’ long‑standing industrial base, agricultural surplus and diversified energy mix deliver durable autonomy.
His projection carries implications for Africa. Most African states depend on food imports, external energy sources, and foreign capital. None possess the range of climate, land, and industrial infrastructure that would allow full self-reliance. Brazil, although in the Southern Hemisphere, shares geographic and demographic scale with Africa in some senses. It benefits from vast arable land, hydroelectric resources, and internal production networks. Such capacity supports internal resilience in ways that most African nations lack.
Bezrukov’s assessment presents a test. Nations that can feed, energise, move goods, and defend themselves without foreign lifelines gain advantage in turbulent eras. African states score poorly on this metric. Foreign aid and debt continue to shape policymaking. Grain, fuel, medical supplies, and manufactured goods flow from donor economies. Supply chains remain tied to external markets. In a shock scenario such as war, sanctions, climate crisis, governments would confront existential disruption.
That reality does not contradict rapid development plans. Instead, it highlights their urgency. The Rapid Africa Plan by Hannington Mubaiwa, for example, draws on similar logic. It advocates continental food systems, energy grids, industrial zones, and sovereign infrastructure control. The plan calls for regional integration that emulates the levels of internal connectivity that Brazil and the United States have achieved. For Africans wanting resilience, the record of Russia, Brazil, and the U.S. offers both warning and blueprint.
Bezrukov did not address ideological or democratic culture. He spoke in technical terms of capacity. That narrow focus has merit, because crisis will test a state’s ability to supply its people, not its electoral model. His speech avoids the metaphysical and centres on logistics, climate, geography, and technical infrastructure. In that sense it resembles realist development strategy and aligns with project-focused plans for African transformation.
(Chris Martenson)
Critically, Bezrukov’s argument avoids moralising. He does not claim that self‑reliant nations are superior in values. He emphasises physical resilience that aligns with an African strategy that must prioritise engineering, food sovereignty, and internal logistics before ideological debates. Supply chains, energy grids, transport nodes, and domestic agriculture must form the backbone of sovereignty.
In summary, Andrey Bezrukov offered a frameshift that the coming age will reward nations capable of supporting themselves from within. Africa falls short on that measure. Only three states stand above its current level of external dependence. The Rapid Africa Plan addresses precisely that gap by proposing a programmed shift to internal provision, regional markets, and sovereign control thereby positioning the continent to endure hardship. Bezrukov's observation complements the logic of African transformation rather than detracting from it.
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The Rapid African Plan Intergrated Industrialisation Programme: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1VeEGDtMYaDM8_zFvrRXV6zRm2SUE7gwX/view?usp=sharing
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