Ukraine's Command Structure Now in Russia's Crosshairs

Targeted killings of Ukranian leadership point to a quiet shift in Moscow’s response strategy

(SBU Colonel Ivan Voronich assassinated in Kyiv )

The recent assassination of Ukrainian SBU Colonel Ivan Voronich marks a notable escalation in the covert dimensions of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Voronich headed a department within Ukraine’s Security Service that played a central role in operations beyond Ukraine’s borders. His involvement reportedly included orchestrating assassinations of figures in Donetsk and Lugansk from as far back as 2014, as well as playing a direct role in incursions into Russian territory, particularly in Kursk. The manner of his death, shot with a silenced pistol in broad daylight, suggests a targeted operation, most likely executed by a professional assassin. This implies state-level involvement, which points towards a Russian response rather than an internal Ukrainian matter.

(Assassination of Colonel Ivan Voronich, Head of Special Operations at the SBU, was killed in broad daylight in the Holosiivskyi district)

The Russians have repeatedly accused Ukraine of carrying out targeted killings inside Russian territory. Colonel Voronich’s killing appears to represent a shift in tactics. Rather than reacting through general military pressure or retaliation by artillery and missile, this suggests a focused and selective strategy. The Russians appear to be drawing a line between political leaders and operational commanders. So far, their response has been limited to intelligence and security figures rather than top-level politicians. However, statements from figures like Vladimir Putin and other senior officials suggest that this restraint, ethics aside, is tactical. They believe the political leaders, including Zelensky, bear full responsibility for what they see as attacks on Russian soil.

Ukrainian officials, including Zelensky himself, have not avoided public displays of support for these targeted operations. On at least one occasion, Zelensky publicly praised the intelligence services shortly after a Russian general was assassinated. Ukrainian intelligence chief Kirill Budanov has even admitted that attempts have been made to assassinate Putin directly. While unsuccessful, the effort has been acknowledged, including the high-profile drone incident targeting the Kremlin. These open acknowledgements remove any plausible deniability. They establish a precedent that legitimises reciprocal Russian action under the logic of warfare.

Budanov remains a central figure. Though once floated as a possible future defence minister or commander-in-chief, he is reportedly viewed with suspicion and hostility by many within the Ukrainian military. An informant from one of the nationalist battalions described widespread resentment towards Budanov, particularly due to his surveillance network within the army. The battalion-level source described constant tension between political directives and battlefield reality. Ukrainian soldiers are routinely ordered to hold positions deemed undefendable by military standards. Senior commanders find themselves constrained, often unable to make tactical withdrawals without risk of reprisal or punishment.

This has consequences for cohesion and morale in military units. The same soldier noted that most of his original battalion comrades are either dead or wounded, replaced by fresh recruits brought in during the war. The soldiers believe that the war will culminate in a siege or battle for Kiev. This is not official doctrine, the account says front-line units widely expect this outcome, though it remains unofficial.

Russian strategy has shifted, such that military operations now aim not only at attrition but at operational collapse. The Swiss press has reported that Russian forces are preparing for a knockout blow, by ditching incremental advances, for encirclement and dismantling of Ukraine’s defensive front. Launch positions in northern regions like Sumy and Kharkov appear designed to enable a rapid exploitation of Ukrainian collapse if and when it happens. Ukraine faces two choices; hold current lines in the hope of ceasefire or fall back to fortified lines. The fallback lines are reportedly being built but their location, east or west of the Dnieper, remains unclear. Russian strikes on cement factories may be part of a campaign to sabotage such fortifications before they are complete.

The air war has already tilted as Russia is steadily increasing both drone and missile production, with reported targets of producing a thousand drones per day. Ukrainian air defences, including Patriot batteries, are thin and overstretched. Missile and drone strikes on infrastructure are taking a toll on civilian life and morale. Shelters in cities like Kiev are full every night. Ukrainian forces cannot stop all strikes, but claim high interception rates, yet continue to request more air defences, which suggests the real effectiveness is far lower.

Reports say Russia is building up missile stockpiles rather than using everything it produces. Some estimates say it can maintain the current strike rate for two years based on existing reserves alone. The West cannot match this output, even the Patriot interceptor production remains low, with U.S. stocks reportedly drawn down during the Iran conflict as well. Ukraine will receive only a fraction of the Patriot missiles promised earlier, and will have to buy future shipments. Trump’s administration is not giving weapons freely and is leaning on European governments to pay.

Ukrainian military strategy appears misaligned with battlefield conditions. While some, like Budanov, speak of ceasefire as a realistic prospect by autumn, there is no indication that Russia shares this view. Russian diplomatic statements, including Lavrov’s, suggest that Moscow is not entertaining new concessions or compromise. At the same time, Reznikov, Ukraine’s former defence minister, said there is no chance of peace under the current Russian leadership. Taken alongside known assassination attempts and shifting rhetoric, this suggests that the Ukrainian side may be pursuing leadership change in Russia by any means possible, including covert action.

Putin has publicly said that removing Zelensky would be a mistake, as he views the current Ukrainian leadership as strategically poor. This suggests Moscow may be intentionally avoiding direct strikes on Ukraine’s political leadership, preferring instead to degrade the country’s intelligence, military and infrastructure capabilities. But if Ukrainian actions continue to target Russian command structures and leadership, it would be unwise to assume that restraint will hold indefinitely.

In the meantime, Ukrainian front lines continue to deteriorate. Ukrainian sources acknowledge slow but consistent Russian advances. Reports suggest preparation for retreat west of current lines, though this may come too late to avoid encirclement. Ukraine’s remaining option is a strategic retreat, but Zelensky reportedly opposes such moves. In this case, the political decision-making in Kiev is directly undermining any chance of maintaining cohesion on the battlefield.

The Western press focuses on symbolism and individual deliveries of equipment, but the underlying material imbalance is decisive. Ukraine’s industrial capacity cannot meet wartime needs. Western production is limited, and what remains is expensive and slow. Russia is increasing output while maintaining or even growing stockpiles. Policy changes in Washington or Brussels will not reverse this difference.

The continued talk of a ceasefire does not align with battlefield conditions. Even some Ukrainian military sources no longer believe that any settlement is achievable in the current environment. If that view spreads, and if battlefield pressure continues to rise, the war may shift towards urban fighting and a battle for Kiev. No decision in the West is positioned to prevent that outcome.

Global GeoPolitics

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