Trump's Complete & Total Ceasefire Cannot Be Trusted
The US and Israel Have PhD's In Bad Faith
Trump announced a ceasefire on his Truth Social account. There has been no official statement from the Israeli government. Iran has not issued confirmation either. As of now, there is no signed agreement, no joint declaration, and no evidence of formal coordination. The announcement came from one side only.
Iran later issued a statement saying it would stop firing if Israel did. Israel offered no formal commitment, and there is no negotiated framework or enforcement mechanism in place. Each side remains free to resume military action at any time. Washington labeled this a ceasefire, but the facts do not support that description.
Israel began the conflict against Iran and was unable to maintain the pace. Missile strikes from Iran continued for days and penetrated Israeli defenses. The now infamous “Paper Dome” previously heralded as the “Iron Dome” anti-missile system showed serious gaps. Interceptors were used faster than they could be replaced, and in many instances failed. Many Iranian missile strikes reached military and infrastructure targets. Israeli officials saw the limits of their capabilities and requested American help to bring the fighting to a halt. Iran continued firing until the last hours.
The targeted stockpile of Iran's enriched uranium is safe and preserved; and Iran avoided major destruction of its core infrastructure. The facilities targeted by the United States had already been emptied, and key material was moved before the airstrikes. The United States failed to degrade Iran’s nuclear program in any meaningful way. Iran retains the knowledge, the equipment, and the capability to restart operations. Reports claiming total destruction of the sites are not supported by independent verification.
The Trump administration claimed success, but the facts do not support it. A regime change has not transpired. Iran’s nuclear program remains intact, the missile systems are operational, the regional alliances are still in place, and and leadership was unaffected. No core objective of the strike was achieved. Iran's alliance structure in the region was not broken, as the leadership remains in place. The United States avoided a broader war, but it also failed to reach any diplomatic or strategic gain. The U.S. position was weakened by the attack. Iran does not see Washington as a reliable negotiating partner. Talks will not resume under existing conditions.
Israel sought regime change in Tehran and direct U.S. military involvement but secured neither, exposing vulnerabilities to sustained missile strikes while losing operational momentum as Iran’s leadership held firm. Iran responded with daily strikes, kept up the pace, and demonstrated that Israel could not achieve air superiority. The pressure on Washington to de-escalate came from the realization that Israel could not carry the war alone and that further fighting would drag U.S. forces deeper into another open-ended conflict.
Russian and Chinese positions were consistent. Both states condemned the U.S. strike. Moscow met with Iranian officials in the final days before the pause. Iran’s alignment with Russia is active and deepening. Economic and military coordination will likely increase. Beijing has not issued detailed statements but maintains strategic support. Neither country benefits from further escalation, but both oppose U.S. demands on Iran.
Israeli operations inside Iran will continue. Assassinations, sabotage, and surveillance are expected to expand. Iran will respond, but the pace and method are not clear. The possibility of regional escalation remains. If Iran decides to close the Strait of Hormuz, global energy markets will be affected immediately. The United States is not in a position to manage another maritime conflict while supporting multiple active fronts. Iran’s leadership knows this, but does not seem to want to capitalize on this.
The structure of the Non-Proliferation Treaty has been damaged. The International Atomic Energy Agency has lost standing in Tehran and Moscow. Iran now has fewer reasons to allow inspections or return to any nuclear deal under Western terms. The possibility of Iran developing nuclear weapons capability has increased. Domestic pressure to abandon restraint is rising. Political costs of compliance have grown since the strikes. Iran may choose to accelerate, not delay, its nuclear planning.
The present halt in fighting is temporary. The core issues remain unresolved, with no change in positions and no guarantees provided by any side. Iran will not accept terms that strip its legal enrichment rights or dismantle its missile defenses. Israel will not accept Iran’s retention of those capabilities. The United States cannot meet both demands at once.
The U.S. and Israel have a history of negotiating in bad faith with regional actors, often pursuing strategic goals while undermining agreements. For example, the U.S. unilaterally withdrew from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) under Trump, despite Iran's compliance, eroding trust in American commitments. Similarly, Israel has repeatedly expanded settlements in occupied territories despite peace talks, drawing criticism for undermining the Oslo Accords. These patterns reflect a tendency to use negotiations to buy time or shift blame while pursuing unilateral objectives. Given this track record, Iran has grounds to distrust Trump's proposed unilateral ceasefire, viewing it potentially as a tactical maneuver rather than a sincere step toward de-escalation.
This war has been paused on merely ptactical grounds. There is no clear or definitive indicators that it has ended.
Update:
13.00pm (GMT) Just an update since this piece written, the reports emerging are that Israel has broken the ceasefire already. Trump has made statements against this violation visibly angry. It's a theater indeed, who knows if he is being genuine? Was this a trick to save US military bases?
100% reader supported: If you think my voice should be heard louder then PLEASE support by becoming a PAID SUBSCRIBER. I’m here for your raw, straight, and dedicated analyses. Your support is appreciated. Thank you.
buymeacoffee.com/ggtv
They have a multi-hundred billion dollar a year psyop budget. Stay critical, but it's naive to think we can figure this all out the day after it happens.