Trump's 50 Days Of Nothing Fails To Move Russia
U.S. policy on Ukraine faces military and political failure
( Credit: The World Politics)
We all now know of Donald Trump’s infamous announcement, issuing a 50-day ultimatum to Russia demanding a resolution to the war in Ukraine. The Russian response has been total indifference. Moscow is continuing its military operations without adjusting its position. Russia’s objectives have been clear and consistent, and its leadership has stated multiple times it will not offer concessions to an existential threat. Trump appears surprised by this response ( maybe he is surrounded by a bunch of liers), despite no indication that Moscow was open to negotiation on U.S. terms. His belief that he could change Putin’s position through personal charm or transactional pressure has failed.
( This Axios revelation is intriguing)
The current U.S. position in Ukraine is weak, if they could be another word worse than weak, that would certainly be most appropriate. Battlefield momentum is with Russia, while Ukraine continues to lose strategic ground. Russian missile and drone superiority has dismantled Ukrainian air defences. Ukrainian attempts at countering this with drone attacks have been from success. Kyiv Oblast has been left with no protection even in its capital, kyiv. Russia is producing long-range drones in large numbers and has complete air superiority. Ukraine’s ability to strike Russian territory remains limited and largely symbolic, they love a bit of optics with the help of the noisy establishment media.
(Glen Glynnwald on Trump reverting to Biden's Policies, well the DeepState)
Trump’s strategy has fallen back on the Biden-era tactics of sanctions and weapons shipments. To even think just how much he hates Biden, let alone being compared to him. These sanctions have reached saturation, every expert and non expert agress, they are totally useless on aself sufficient huge country like Russia. The U.S. has applied more than 30,000 sanctions on Russia over the past decade. Few economic levers remain, you definitely feel sorry for whoever is tasked to dig for any loopholes to apply further sanctions. Energy trade is one of the last standing points, but even this is just way too complicated. The U.S. depends on Russian uranium, and allies such as India, China, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia continue to trade with Moscow. Threats to sanction these countries are not credible, the sanctions will just end up being more self-harm. Past attempts to isolate China economically failed, nothing and no evidence shows there is any chance of successs of any renewed attempts. India’s policy of neutrality remains firm, they do not budge. Saudi Arabia has profited by reselling Russian oil and these so called U.S. allies have made clear they will not change course under American pressure.
On the weapons front, Trump claims NATO will fund future shipments to Ukraine, sparing U.S. taxpayers. But the U.S. is NATO’s largest contributor, what a mind trick, right. All the megahorns have been shouting Europe is being exploited more by the U.S. The European states are rejecting the proposal outright, it is insane, because you would think this was agreed before any announcement. France, Italy, Hungary, and Slovakia have either said they will not participate or do not have the capacity. Only Germany, the UK, and some Scandinavian countries are willing. There are also no weapons to send, as U.S. stocks are depleted. The Pentagon has admitted it lacks enough interceptors for its own air defence needs and Raytheon cannot ramp up production to meet demands. They can only make so much in a year, matching demand is wholly impracticable.
These people are scratching their heads whichever possible to find solutions to escalate inorder as they say to de-escalate. The attempts to find effective long-range systems have failed. The noise about ATACMS died a long time ago, they have been used with little effect. The JASSMs require aircraft vulnerable to Russian air power. The other platform, the Tomahawk, these are capable of carrying nuclear warheads, and would require naval or strategic air launch, which Ukraine does not have. Its use would also raise the risk of a nuclear response, as Russia would have no way to determine if the missile carried a nuclear or conventional warhead. This makes it an unviable option, it is just out of the question, but you cannot put anything past these people. Russia has stated it would treat such an attack as nuclear and respond accordingly.
( Trump recently met NATO Chief, Rutte)
Several European governments have publicly voiced concern over continued arms deliveries. France, Italy, Hungary, and Slovakia have either refused or limited their support. France insists on buying from its domestic industry, which lacks output, whilst Italy has said it cannot afford further commitments due to budget constraints. Hungary and Slovakia oppose military aid altogether and offer only humanitarian support.
The U.S. has already transferred most of its Patriot missile systems. The Pentagon admitted in June it holds only 25 percent of the interceptor stock it deems necessary for its own defence. Western attempts to send more have stalled due to lack of supply. Raytheon, the U.S. manufacturer, cannot meet increased demand in time, as previously stated above, just needed to emphasise with a bit of detail.
Russian air defence systems, including S-400 units, and electronic warfare capabilities have consistently intercepted Western-supplied missiles and drones. Ukrainian losses include multiple Western-supplied systems now destroyed or inoperable. European military stockpiles are insufficient to replace what has already been used. Even if NATO shifts the funding burden away from Washington, European states cannot procure what does not exist. U.S. industrial capacity is overstretched, and European firms lack the scale to compensate. Without sufficient output, pledges to arm Ukraine cannot be fulfilled in practice. Russian forces continue to advance in multiple sectors along the front. Operational encirclement of key cities such as Pokrovsk is underway, with remaining access routes now covered by Russian artillery and drones. Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from several positions under sustained pressure. Supply lines are increasingly limited, whilst rear positions face are being hammered and regular strikes from long-range drones. The Ukrainian government has replaced key figures in defence and administration, including moving the defence minister to Washington. These changes have had no observable effect on the course of the fighting. Russian military and political leadership have made no adjustments in response to Trump’s public statements. Moscow continues to act as though U.S. threats carry little weight.
(Nick Fuentes outlines The US predicament)
U.S. global posture is overstretched. The administration is trying to shift focus to China, but the Ukraine conflict remains unresolved, and a bottleneck. There are signs that the U.S. is preparing Japan and Australia for a future conflict with China. However, Trump cannot move on from Ukraine without being seen as weak, the man boasted would stop the war within 24 hours of assuming office. If he backs down, Trump will be accused of surrender, not sure if this even matters, with the long list of backtracks, worst of them all, the Epstein files. If Trump chooses to escalate and the outcome fails, he will face criticism from both political opponents and his own supporters. His administration lacks viable tools to apply further pressure. As previously stated, sanctions have reached their limit. U.S. weapons stocks are significantly reduced, and production timelines are too long to meet immediate needs. European allies have shown limited willingness to finance new arms packages or replace destroyed systems. Any broader escalation would risk further disruption to global energy and commodity markets, which remain sensitive to instability
Trump’s next move is uncertain, he may attempt another media distraction or another pressure tactic. But none of the available tools have worked as Russia has learned from past mistakes and adapted. China and India are unmoved by what the West is doing, and all signs point to Europe fracturing. The outcome of the 50-day ultimatum is likely to be a public climbdown or a desperate symbolic act.
The Russian government sees no reason to alter its position and continues military operations without adjusting pace or objectives. Public statements from Moscow suggest they do not regard Trump’s ultimatum as serious or enforceable. There is no indication that Russian leadership believes Washington holds meaningful leverage. U.S. threats have produced no shift in the battlefield or in diplomatic engagement. Most key allies are now pursuing separate approaches, focused on domestic constraints and regional interests. U.S. influence over the direction of the conflict has visibly declined. Trump’s ultimatum was presented as a pressure tool, but its failure has only underscored the limits of American reach.
There is only crazy options left, however, these guys do have a history of dropping surprises, the fall is Syria is one such case, who even saw it coming.
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How many days have passed? 4 ?