The aftermath of Trump-Putin phone calls reveals a deep disconnect between American policy toward Russia and the reality on the ground. U.S. officials continue to push for a ceasefire in Ukraine, but Russia is not negotiating from a place of desperation or confusion. The assumption that Putin has no exit strategy or that Russia's economy is collapsing is wrong. The Russian economy has been restructured around wartime production, with defense manufacturing running around the clock. Contrary to Western belief, Russia did not convert civilian factories for military use, it expanded its Soviet-era infrastructure while maintaining domestic production of consumer goods and high-end technology, including advanced jets and lithography equipment.
The U.S. still lacks real expertise on Russia. There are no credible Russia scholars within reach of policymaking. This ignorance has led to flawed predictions and missteps, from underestimating Russia’s economy to falsely believing in a fractured Kremlin. Meanwhile, key institutions in the U.S. base their understanding of Russia on outdated German narratives and limited Cold War-era research. Russia’s economy is now larger than believed, rivaling India’s in size and exceeding in technological depth. Cities across Russia are modern, industrial, and expanding, while employment demand across skilled trades continues to surge.
On diplomacy, Trump and his team continue to signal withdrawal from Ukraine if no progress is made. Yet they never follow through. Russia knows this. They watch as Trump talks tough, then backs off. Moscow expects the U.S. to stay entangled in the conflict, regardless of political rhetoric, because Washington cannot afford to walk away. Ukraine is now a de facto NATO state. The U.S. has invested too much and views Russia as a permanent threat to its global standing.
Ultimately, the U.S. does not want peace, it wants control. The objective is not a ceasefire but to use Ukraine as a forward base against Russia. Any real negotiation would require giving up that leverage, which the U.S. refuses to do. Meanwhile, Russia has already turned away from the West and positioned itself firmly in a post-Western global order. The West misjudged Russia once. It is now doing it again, but this time with much higher stakes.
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