In a seismic diplomatic move, Sudan’s Security and Defense Council has officially announced the severance of diplomatic relations with the United Arab Emirates, accusing Abu Dhabi of direct military involvement in support of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). In an urgent and somber statement, the council condemned what it called “a sustained campaign of aggression against Sudan’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and the security of its citizens.”
According to the Council, the UAE has not only armed the RSF but is allegedly operating a fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) whose trajectories have been traced by Sudanese radar systems to Emirati military installations. This accusation marks a serious escalation in what has been, for over two years, a grinding internal conflict with increasingly international contours.
The question now is whether a civil war has morphed to a proxy war or it's been a proxy conflict all along. Sudan's brutal conflict between the army (SAF) and the RSF has already displaced millions and fractured the country’s economy and infrastructure. However, this latest development indicates the war is now fully entering the realm of proxy conflict, with external powers not just picking sides diplomatically, but militarily.
The UAE’s involvement, long suspected but now openly denounced by Khartoum, places it in direct opposition to the Sudanese military. Despite the UAE’s prior investments in Sudanese ports and trade routes, its backing of the RSF, formerly the Janjaweed militia accused of war crimes in Darfur, appears to be aimed at building pliant power blocs in the Red Sea corridor.
The question now is whether Sudan’s leadership is making a calculated bet to swing regional support decisively in its favor. Will this move galvanise Egypt and Saudi Arabia, who share historic, cultural, and strategic ties with Sudan, to provide more assertive military or economic support?
Egypt, wary of chaos spilling across its southern border, has leaned toward supporting Sudan’s military, while Saudi Arabia has vacillated, pursuing a cautious balancing act. Severing ties with the UAE could serve to pressure Riyadh into choosing sides, or alienate it altogether, given its close ties with Abu Dhabi.
Equally plausible, though far more geopolitically disruptive, is the prospect of Khartoum turning to Tehran. Sudan and Iran once enjoyed strong military and intelligence ties, severed in 2016 under Saudi pressure. A re-engagement would give Iran another foothold on the Red Sea, a nightmare scenario for the Gulf monarchies and Western naval powers alike.
This is not merely a diplomatic spat; it is a tectonic shift in the Horn of Africa’s strategic map. The Red Sea is becoming an arena for great power rivalry, where local conflicts provide cover for regional and even global players to jockey for dominance.
Sudan’s declaration casts the UAE as an "aggressor state," marking one of the few times an Arab nation has so boldly denounced another in such terms. It sets a dangerous precedent, not only for the future of intra-Arab diplomacy but also for how proxy conflicts might escalate without clear red lines.
Sudan’s decision to confront the UAE head-on is a high-stakes gamble. It could catalyse a reordering of alliances in the region, or deepen the country's isolation. The world is watching to see whether Cairo and Riyadh close ranks with Khartoum, or whether a new, more unpredictable axis begins to emerge with Tehran in its corner.
What comes next may not just define Sudan’s future, but reshape the balance of power across the Red Sea and the wider Middle East.
@GGTvStreams
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