Iran's Choices Are Regime change or Regime survival

Iran Was Tricked By The US And Lowered It's Guard

Israel has launched direct strikes on Iran. The United States says it was not involved. Both positions cannot hold at once. Either the U.S. was aware and allowed it, or it was unaware and has lost control of events in the region. Both options reflect failure.

Talks between the U.S. and Iran had shown signs of progress weeks ago. U.S. envoy Whitcoff and the Iranian foreign minister both said things were moving forward. Iran had signaled openness to keeping its uranium enrichment at low levels. Negotiations were underway. That path is now closed.

Israel has been pushing toward this outcome for over a year. It carried out strikes in Syria against Iranian-linked targets. It carried out assassinations of figures linked to Hezbollah and Hamas. It openly pressed for war. Israeli officials made their intentions known in public and in private.

(Tel Aviv)

The Trump administration was approached by Israeli officials after the U.S. election but before inauguration. Biden declined to authorize strikes. Israel then turned to Trump. Reports indicate Trump was hesitant at first. Figures like Mark Levin lobbied for action. Trump eventually agreed to allow Israel to proceed, or at least chose not to stop it.

Rubio and others now say the strike was unilateral. That claim lacks credibility. The U.S. is Israel’s main security backer. Intelligence sharing is routine. Logistics and coordination are standard. For a strike of this scale to occur without at least U.S. foreknowledge is unlikely. For it to occur with knowledge and without intervention is complicity.

The administration appears to want two things at once: to deny involvement while also standing ready to defend Israel if Iran retaliates. This is not a coherent position. It also signals weakness. If the U.S. cannot prevent its closest ally from launching strikes that undermine its diplomacy, then it is not in control of its foreign policy.

Iran has likely interpreted the strike as U.S.-backed. Any remaining belief in talks with Washington is gone. Iran’s leadership is now focused on regime survival. It is unlikely to respond with a wide military campaign. It is more likely to prepare for further attacks, internal destabilisation, and attempts at regime change.

There is also now a higher risk that Iran will pursue nuclear weapons. Iran has long said it does not want a bomb. But the leadership may now conclude that not having one offers no protection. North Korea, with nuclear weapons, faces no comparable pressure. Iran, without them, is being targeted. That comparison will shape decisions in Tehran.

Trump has boxed himself in. He backed the idea of negotiation but allowed actions that ended it. He claimed the U.S. was not involved in the strike but promised full support to Israel if war breaks out. He says one thing and enables another. The result is a contradiction with consequences.

The strike on Iran may trigger escalation. It may also backfire. If Iran’s leadership holds, it may come out more entrenched. If it moves toward nuclear weapons, pressure in Washington to use force will rise. Either outcome brings new risks.

This situation was avoidable. A deal was within reach. A permanent agreement with Russian guarantees was possible. All parties said they opposed an Iranian nuclear weapon. But diplomacy was pushed aside. The result is a military strike, a regional crisis, and the collapse of talks.

This did not happen because of one event, but because of choices made in Tel Aviv and Washington DC. And a refusal by the White House to take control of its own foreign policy. As Trump later admitted, he knew all along.

Global GeoPolitics

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(Tel Aviv post Iranian Strikes)